CRQC Readiness Benchmark (Q-Day Estimator)
Use the CRQC Readiness Benchmark (Q‑Day Estimator) to turn assumptions into a defensible, crypto‑specific forecast. The tool models quantum readiness as a demand‑vs‑supply problem. On the demand side, select a published resource estimation paper — such as Gidney 2025 for RSA‑2048 or Google’s 2026 estimate for ECC‑256 — which sets the LQC (logical qubits), LOB (logical operations budget), and QOT (logical ops/sec) targets required to execute the cryptographic attack. On the supply side, select a quantum computing modality (superconducting, trapped‑ion, neutral atom, photonic, or silicon), which populates today’s demonstrated capability values and per‑metric annual growth factors. The tool then calculates a Composite CRQC Readiness Score and projects when that score reaches 1.0 — the estimated Q‑Day. Start with the paper and modality defaults, then tweak individual values and growth rates to match vendor claims, alternative papers, or your own view of error‑correction progress. This is intentionally focused on cryptographic breakability, not generic “quantum advantage,” so it may diverge from headline qubit counts.
For readers who want the most detailed, capability‑driven approach to forecasting Q‑Day, see my full methodology article article Path to CRQC – A Capability‑Driven Method for Predicting Q‑Day. It maps the eight technical capabilities behind CRQC, their interdependencies, and TRLs. By design, the Q‑Day Estimator and its methodology presented here are simpler and immediately usable: they compress those capabilities into three measurable metrics — Logical Qubit Capacity (LQC), Logical Operations Budget (LOB), and Quantum Operations Throughput (QOT). In v5.0, each metric has its own annual growth factor (some observed from real hardware progress, some default assumptions — flagged in the tool), so users can model each trajectory independently rather than relying on a single blended growth rate.
Another useful signal I track is vendor execution: announcements and public roadmaps from quantum hardware manufacturers, weighted by their historical hit‑rate on milestones teams that consistently deliver earn more credibility on future targets, and their claims map more directly to LQC/LOB/QOT in the estimator. See the list here: Quantum Hardware Companies and Roadmaps Comparison (2025 Edition).
Disclaimer: this estimator is for education and scenario exploration only – it is not a prediction, guarantee, or formal risk assessment, and it should not be relied on for policy, compliance, investment, or procurement decisions. Methodology and assumptions used for this estimator: https://postquantum.com/post-quantum/crqc-readiness-benchmark/
CRQC Readiness Benchmark (Q-Day Estimator)
Current Capability (Supply)
Benchmark Explanation | Scorecard | CRQC Capability Framework