Marin’s Q-Day Prediction Countdown:

Here is my personal Q-Day prediction. For an understanding of the factors I am considering and recent events that are influencing this prediction, please see Marin’s Q-Day Prediction page.

Most Popular Articles This Week

    November 1, 2021

    Ready for Quantum: Practical Steps for Cybersecurity Teams

    The journey towards quantum resistance is not merely about staying ahead of a theoretical threat but about evolving our cybersecurity…
    August 23, 2024

    Full Stack of AI Concerns: Responsible, Safe, Secure AI

    As AI continues to evolve and integrate deeper into societal frameworks, the strategies for its governance, alignment, and security must…
    April 18, 2025

    What Quantum Computers Can Do Better Than Classical Computers

    Quantum computers already outperform classical computers on a few specialized tasks, and over the coming years that list of tasks…
    November 1, 2023

    Taxonomy of Quantum Computing: Modalities & Architectures

    Over the past few decades, researchers have devised multiple quantum computing paradigms – different models and physical implementations of quantum…
    January 1, 2024

    Marin’s Statement on AI Risks

    The rapid development of AI brings both extraordinary potential and unprecedented risks. AI systems are increasingly demonstrating emergent behaviors, and…
    June 19, 2025

    Q-Day Revisited – RSA-2048 Broken by 2030: Detailed Analysis

    It’s time to mark a controversial date on the calendar: 2030 is the year RSA-2048 will be broken by a…

    Preparing for the Quantum Age – U.S. Congressional Hearing Recap and Analysis

    On June 24, 2025, a House Oversight Subcommittee held a hearing titled “Preparing for the Quantum Age: When Cryptography Breaks.” This hearing convened government, industry, and academic experts to discuss the looming threat quantum computing poses to our current cryptographic systems and what the United States should do to prepare ... Read More

    Government of Canada Launches Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) Migration Roadmap

    On June 23, 2025 The Canadian Centre for Cyber Security (Cyber Centre) has issued a new roadmap for migrating the Government of Canada’s IT systems to post-quantum cryptography (PQC). Effective June 23, 2025, this guidance, "Roadmap for the migration to post-quantum cryptography for the Government of Canada (ITSM.40.001)" lays out clear ... Read More
    GAO Quantum Computing

    The U.S. GAO Publishes a Quantum Threat Report – Right on Strategy but Wrong on Timing

    The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) has issued a June 2025 report titled “Quantum Computing: Leadership Needed to Coordinate Cyber Threat Mitigation Strategy” (GAO-25-108590). GAO makes many spot-on recommendations – calling for strong federal leadership, workforce development, investment in post-quantum readiness, and securing the quantum tech supply chain – and ... Read More

    EU Commission Roadmap Targets 2030 for Post-Quantum Cryptography Transition

    On June 23, 2025, the European Commission and EU Member States unveiled a coordinated roadmap to transition Europe’s digital infrastructure to post-quantum cryptography (PQC). This plan lays out a clear timeline for moving to quantum-resistant encryption, recognizing the urgent threat that future quantum computers pose to classical cryptography. PQC is ... Read More

    Microsoft Unveils New 4D Quantum Error-Correcting Codes

    Microsoft Quantum's researchers have introduced a new family of four-dimensional (4D) geometric quantum error-correcting codes that promise to dramatically outperform today’s standard 2D surface codes. Revealed in a new preprint "A Topologically Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computer with Four Dimensional Geometric Codes" (arXiv:2506.15130v1) and an accompanying Microsoft blog post, these novel 4D ... Read More

    IonQ’s 2025 Roadmap: Toward a Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer by 2028

    IonQ has unveiled an accelerated quantum computing roadmap that, if realized, could deliver a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) as early as 2028. In a June 2025 announcement, the Maryland-based quantum startup – known for its trapped-ion technology – outlined dramatic scaling milestones enabled by recent acquisitions and technical breakthroughs ... Read More

    IBM’s Roadmap to Large-Scale Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computing (FTQC) by 2029 – News & Analysis

    June 10 2025 IBM made a landmark announcement outlining a clear path to build the world’s first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer by the year 2029. Codenamed IBM Quantum “Starling,” this planned system will leverage a new scalable architecture to achieve on the order of 200 logical (error-corrected) qubits capable of ... Read More

    Oxford Achieves 10⁻⁷-Level Qubit Gate Error, Shattering Quantum Fidelity Records

    Physicists at the University of Oxford have set a new world record for quantum logic accuracy, achieving single-qubit gate error rates below 10^-7 – meaning fidelities exceeding 99.99999%. The breakthrough, reported in a study published in Physical Review Letters in June 2025 marks the lowest error ever recorded for any ... Read More
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    Q-Day Revisited – RSA-2048 Broken by 2030: Detailed Analysis

    It’s time to mark a controversial date on the calendar: 2030 is the year RSA-2048 will be broken by a quantum computer. That’s my bold prediction, and I don’t make it lightly. In cybersecurity circles, the countdown to “Q-Day” or Y2Q (the day a cryptographically relevant quantum computer cracks our ... Read More

    Global Quantum Innovation Ecosystems: Lessons for TTOs from Around the World

    For universities and tech transfer offices (TTOs), understanding global diverse quantum innovation ecosystems is more than a matter of curiosity – it’s a practical guide for positioning academic spin‑offs for success on the world stage. Government investment is a key differentiator: by 2025, governments worldwide have committed over $40 billion in ... Read More

    The Enormous Energy Cost of Breaking RSA‑2048 with Quantum Computers

    The energy requirements for breaking RSA-2048 with a quantum computer underscore how different the post-quantum threat is from conventional hacking. It’s not just about qubits and math; it’s about megawatts, cooling systems, and power grids. Today, that reality means only the most potent actors would even contemplate such attacks, and ... Read More

    Building the Quantum Workforce: Talent Challenges and Opportunities

    Amid quantum revolution, a bottleneck has emerged: a lack of skilled people. In fact, the quantum talent shortage is now seen as one of the primary hurdles to translating lab discoveries into real-world innovations. One industry expert even warned that developing a “quantum-literate workforce” will be a key factor in ... Read More

    The Many Faces of Decoherence

    Quantum computers hold enormous promise, but they face a stubborn adversary: decoherence. This is the process by which a qubit’s fragile quantum state (its superposition or entanglement) leaks into the environment and effectively "forgets" the information it was carrying. For today’s leading quantum hardware modalities – superconducting circuits, trapped-ion qubits, ... Read More

    What Quantum Computers Can Do Better Than Classical Computers

    Quantum computers already outperform classical computers on a few specialized tasks, and over the coming years that list of tasks will grow. They excel at problems where superposition and entanglement let them explore a vast landscape of possibilities in parallel and use interference to extract an answer – factoring numbers, ... Read More

    The Rise of Logical Qubits: How Quantum Computers Fight Errors

    Logical qubits are the linchpin for delivering on the promise of quantum computing. They are the qubits as we wish we had them – long-lived and trustworthy – brought to life by the ingenuity of quantum error correction. By encoding information across many imperfect qubits, scientists have shown they can ... Read More

    Marin Ivezic

    Marin Ivezic I am the Founder of Applied Quantum, a research-driven professional services firm dedicated to helping organizations unlock the transformative power of quantum technologies. Alongside leading its specialized service, Secure Quantum—focused on quantum resilience and post-quantum cryptography—I also invest in cutting-edge quantum ventures through Quantum.Partners. Currently, I’m completing a PhD in Quantum Computing and authoring an upcoming book “Practical Quantum Resistance,”while regularly sharing news and insights on quantum computing and quantum security at PostQuantum.com. More about me.

    Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) and Post-Quantum Security Articles

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    Quantum Computing Modalities / Architectures / Paradigms

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