Marin’s Q-Day Predictions (Timeline)
A series of breakthroughs, from improved quantum computing algorithms to enhanced error correction and quantum hardware scaling, signals a shift in the quantum computing landscape. In my opinion. These developments indicate that quantum supremacy and cryptographically relevant quantum computing (CRQC) are transitioning from primarily scientific challenges to practical engineering problems. I have decided to track and document all significant research papers and engineering milestones below. This timeline aims to forecast the arrival of Q-Day, the day when quantum computing will become powerful and stable enough to break current encryption algorithms.
Predicting 2032: New Type of Qubit
Researchers demonstrated a controllable interaction between a new type of qubits - hole-spin qubits - inside a standard silicon transistor. If this research is confirmed and the researchers indeed become ...
Predicting 2035: Reliable Logical Qubit Introduced
In April 2024, Microsoft and Quantinuum announced the development of a reliable logical qubit, a milestone that, in my view, significantly accelerates the timeline toward Q-Day. This development represents a ...
Predicting 2036: Improved Error Correction Could Reduce Physical Qubits Requirements
Researchers from Nord Quantique in Quebec, Canada have just published a paper introducing a new error correction approach that could drastically reduce the number of qubits needed for functional quantum ...
Predicting 2037: 2023 Quantum Threat Timeline Report
The 2023 of the Quantum Threat Timeline Report was just published. As far as Q-Day predictions go, this is probably the best public source. The survey is run by Dr ...
Predicting 2032: 99.5% Two-Qubit Gate Fidelity on 60 Neutral Atom Qubits
Researches from QuEra Computing, Harvard and MIT achieved two-qubit entangling gates with 99.5% fidelity on 60 neutral atom qubits operating simultaneously. Performing entangling quantum operations with low error rates, surpassing ...
Predicting 2033: Over 1,000 Controllable Atomic Qubits Achieved
Researchers from TU Darmstadt just reported on the world’s first successful experiment to realise a quantum-processing architecture that contains more than 1,000 atomic qubits in one single plane. This is ...
Predicting 2033: Initial Q-Day Prediction
I summarized my latest research on Q-Day predictions in this article Q-Day Predictions: Anticipating the Arrival of Cryptanalytically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQC). Based on all of the papers I've read, ...
Predicting 2035: Google Error Correction Breakthrough
In a new article Google researchers claim a breakthrough in quantum computing error correction. Their approach achieved a 4% reduction in the error rate as they scaled up their technique ...
Predicting 2037: 2022 Quantum Threat Timeline Report
2022 Quantum Threat Timeline Report surveyed 40 global quantum computing experts on timeline within which a quantum computer will be able to RSA-2048 within 24 hours. More than half (22/40) ...
Predicting 2035: Breaking RSA-2048 With 20M Noisy Qubits
Researchers Craig Gidney and Martin Ekerå, in a new paper, demonstrate how to factor RSA-2048 in 8 hours using 20 million noisy qubits. This is a significant improvement, as only ...