Marin’s Q-Day Predictions (Timeline)

/ Timeline Stories
Hole-Spin Qubits

Predicting 2032: New Type of Qubit

Researchers demonstrated a controllable interaction between a new type of qubits - hole-spin qubits - inside a standard silicon transistor. If this research is confirmed and the researchers indeed become ...
/ Timeline Stories
Quantinuum - Trap inside a chamber

Predicting 2035: Reliable Logical Qubit Introduced

In April 2024, Microsoft and Quantinuum announced the development of a reliable logical qubit, a milestone that, in my view, significantly accelerates the timeline toward Q-Day. This development represents a ...
/ Timeline Stories
Quantum Threat Timeline Report

Predicting 2037: 2023 Quantum Threat Timeline Report

The 2023 of the Quantum Threat Timeline Report was just published. As far as Q-Day predictions go, this is probably the best public source. The survey is run by Dr ...
/ Timeline Stories
TU Darmstadt Atomic Qubits

Predicting 2033: Over 1,000 Controllable Atomic Qubits Achieved

Researchers from TU Darmstadt just reported on the world’s first successful experiment to realise a quantum-processing architecture that contains more than 1,000 atomic qubits in one single plane. This is ...
/ Timeline Stories
Q-Day CRQC Quantum

Predicting 2033: Initial Q-Day Prediction

I summarized my latest research on Q-Day predictions in this article Q-Day Predictions: Anticipating the Arrival of Cryptanalytically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQC). Based on all of the papers I've read, ...
/ Timeline Stories
Quantum Threat Timeline Report

Predicting 2037: 2022 Quantum Threat Timeline Report

2022 Quantum Threat Timeline Report surveyed 40 global quantum computing experts on timeline within which a quantum computer will be able to RSA-2048 within 24 hours. More than half (22/40) ...
/ Timeline Stories
Factoring RSA 2048 20M

Predicting 2035: Breaking RSA-2048 With 20M Noisy Qubits

Researchers Craig Gidney and Martin Ekerå, in a new paper, demonstrate how to factor RSA-2048 in 8 hours using 20 million noisy qubits. This is a significant improvement, as only ...