All Q-Day, Y2Q Posts
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Q-Day
How You, Too, Can Predict Q-Day (Without the Hype)
For three decades, Q-Day has been “just a few years away.” I want to show you how to make your own informed prediction on when Q-Day will arrive. Counting physical qubits by itself is misleading. To break RSA you need error‑corrected logical qubits, long and reliable operation depth, and enough throughput to finish within an attack‑relevant time window.
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Post-Quantum
CRQC Readiness Benchmark vs. Quantum Threat Tracker (QTT)
I will try and compare my proposed CRQC Readiness Benchmark with QTT, highlighting fundamental differences in methodology, assumptions, and philosophy, all in an effort to clarify how each approach informs our understanding of the looming “Q-Day.” The goal is to articulate why my benchmark and QTT produce different outlooks (2030s vs. 2050s for RSA-2048), and how both can be used together to guide post-quantum readiness.
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Q-Day
The Trouble with Quantum Computing and Q-Day Predictions
The trouble with quantum computing predictions so far has been that too many have been more speculation than science, more influenced by bias than by balanced analysis. We have the tools and knowledge to do better. By embracing a data-driven, scenario-based approach, we can turn timeline forecasting from a source of confusion into a valuable planning aid.
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Q-Day
Quantum Threat Tracker (QTT) Review Praising the Tool Questioning the Demo
The Quantum Threat Tracker (QTT) is a newly released open-source tool by Cambridge Consultants and the University of Edinburgh that aims to forecast when quantum computers will break today’s encryption. It combines quantum resource estimation (using optimized variants of Shor’s algorithm) with hardware development roadmaps to predict when cryptographic protocols will be broken. In other words, QTT estimates how many qubits and runtime are needed…
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Post-Quantum
CRQC Readiness Benchmark – Benchmarking Quantum Computers on the Path to Breaking RSA-2048
Benchmarking quantum capabilities for cryptography is both critical and challenging. We can’t rely on any single metric like qubit count to tell us how near we are to breaking RSA-2048. A combination of logical qubit count, error-corrected circuit depth, and operational speed must reach certain thresholds in unison. Existing benchmarks – Quantum Volume, Algorithmic Qubits, etc. – each address parts of this, but a CRQC-specific…
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Q-Day
Q-Day Revisited – RSA-2048 Broken by 2030: Detailed Analysis
It’s time to mark a controversial date on the calendar: 2030 is the year RSA-2048 will be broken by a quantum computer. That’s my bold prediction, and I don’t make it lightly. In cybersecurity circles, the countdown to “Q-Day” or Y2Q (the day a cryptographically relevant quantum computer cracks our public-key encryption) has been a topic of intense debate. Lately, the noise has become deafening:…
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Q-Day
What Is Q-Day (Y2Q)?
Q-Day, sometimes called “Y2Q” or the “Quantum Apocalypse”, refers to the future moment when a quantum computer becomes powerful enough to break modern encryption algorithms. In other words, it’s the day a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) can crack the public-key cryptography (like RSA or ECC) that underpins our digital security. The term “Y2Q” stands for “years to quantum,” an explicit nod to the Y2K…
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Post-Quantum
The Enormous Energy Cost of Breaking RSA‑2048 with Quantum Computers
The energy requirements for breaking RSA-2048 with a quantum computer underscore how different the post-quantum threat is from conventional hacking. It’s not just about qubits and math; it’s about megawatts, cooling systems, and power grids. Today, that reality means only the most potent actors would even contemplate such attacks, and even then only for the crown jewels of intelligence. Tomorrow, advances in both quantum engineering…
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