Q-Day
PostQuantum.com by Marin Ivezic – Quantum Security, PQC, Quantum Resistance, CRQC, Q-Day, Y2Q
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How You, Too, Can Predict Q-Day (Without the Hype)
For three decades, Q-Day has been “just a few years away.” I want to show you how to make your own informed prediction on when Q-Day will arrive. Counting physical qubits by itself is misleading. To break RSA you need error‑corrected logical qubits, long and reliable operation depth, and enough…
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CRQC Readiness Benchmark vs. Quantum Threat Tracker (QTT)
I will try and compare my proposed CRQC Readiness Benchmark with QTT, highlighting fundamental differences in methodology, assumptions, and philosophy, all in an effort to clarify how each approach informs our understanding of the looming “Q-Day.” The goal is to articulate why my benchmark and QTT produce different outlooks (2030s…
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The Trouble with Quantum Computing and Q-Day Predictions
The trouble with quantum computing predictions so far has been that too many have been more speculation than science, more influenced by bias than by balanced analysis. We have the tools and knowledge to do better. By embracing a data-driven, scenario-based approach, we can turn timeline forecasting from a source…
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Quantum Threat Tracker (QTT) Review Praising the Tool Questioning the Demo
The Quantum Threat Tracker (QTT) is a newly released open-source tool by Cambridge Consultants and the University of Edinburgh that aims to forecast when quantum computers will break today’s encryption. It combines quantum resource estimation (using optimized variants of Shor’s algorithm) with hardware development roadmaps to predict when cryptographic protocols…
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CRQC Readiness Benchmark – Benchmarking Quantum Computers on the Path to Breaking RSA-2048
Benchmarking quantum capabilities for cryptography is both critical and challenging. We can’t rely on any single metric like qubit count to tell us how near we are to breaking RSA-2048. A combination of logical qubit count, error-corrected circuit depth, and operational speed must reach certain thresholds in unison. Existing benchmarks…
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Q-Day Revisited – RSA-2048 Broken by 2030: Detailed Analysis
It’s time to mark a controversial date on the calendar: 2030 is the year RSA-2048 will be broken by a quantum computer. That’s my bold prediction, and I don’t make it lightly. In cybersecurity circles, the countdown to “Q-Day” or Y2Q (the day a cryptographically relevant quantum computer cracks our…
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What Is Q-Day (Y2Q)?
Q-Day, sometimes called “Y2Q” or the “Quantum Apocalypse”, refers to the future moment when a quantum computer becomes powerful enough to break modern encryption algorithms. In other words, it’s the day a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) can crack the public-key cryptography (like RSA or ECC) that underpins our digital…
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The Enormous Energy Cost of Breaking RSA‑2048 with Quantum Computers
The energy requirements for breaking RSA-2048 with a quantum computer underscore how different the post-quantum threat is from conventional hacking. It’s not just about qubits and math; it’s about megawatts, cooling systems, and power grids. Today, that reality means only the most potent actors would even contemplate such attacks, and…
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Breaking RSA Encryption: Quantum Hype Meets Reality (2022-2025)
To put it plainly, if you encrypted a message with an RSA-2048 public key today, no one on Earth knows how to factor it with currently available technology, even if they threw every quantum computer and supercomputer we have at the task. That may change in the future – perhaps…
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Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) Standardization – 2025 Update
Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is here - not in theory, but in practice. We have concrete algorithms, with standards guiding their implementation. They will replace our decades-old cryptographic infrastructure piece by piece over the next decade. For tech professionals, now is the time to get comfortable with lattices and new key…
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NIST PQC Security Strength Categories (1–5) Explained
As part of its post-quantum cryptography (PQC) standardization, NIST introduced five security strength categories (often labeled Levels 1-5) to classify the robustness of candidate algorithms. Each category represents a minimum security level that a PQC algorithm’s cryptanalysis should require, defined by comparison to a well-understood "reference" problem in classical cryptography.…
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4,099 Qubits: The Myth and Reality of Breaking RSA-2048 with Quantum Computers
4,099 is the widely cited number of quantum bits one would need to factor a 2048-bit RSA key using Shor’s algorithm – in other words, the notional threshold at which a quantum computer could crack one of today’s most common encryption standards. The claim has an alluring simplicity: if we…
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Q-Day Predictions: Anticipating the Arrival of CRQC
While CRQCs capable of breaking current public key encryption algorithms have not yet materialized, technological advancements are pushing us towards what is ominously dubbed 'Q-Day'—the day a CRQC becomes operational. Many experts believe that Q-Day, or Y2Q as it's sometimes called, is just around the corner, suggesting it could occur…
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Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL) Risk
"Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" (HNDL), also known as "Store Now, Decrypt Later" (SNDL), is a concerning risk where adversaries collect encrypted data with the intent to decrypt it once quantum computing becomes capable of breaking current encryption methods. This is the quantum computing's ticking time bomb, with potential implications for…
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Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQCs)
Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQCs) represent a seismic shift on the horizon of cybersecurity. In this article, we’ve seen that CRQCs are defined by their ability to execute quantum algorithms (like Shor’s and Grover’s) at a scale that breaks the cryptographic primitives we rely on daily. While still likely years…
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