Marin’s Q-Day Predictions – Q-Day Estimator & Timeline
CRQC Readiness Benchmark (Q-Day Estimator)
An interactive way to explore how close we may be to a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) for breaking RSA-2048. Adjust assumptions below to see how the projected Q‑Day shifts. Methodology & discussion. Disclaimer: this tool is for experimentation and scenario analysis only.
Scenarios:
Load a starting scenario, then tweak parameters to explore.
Switch to Advanced to control 10 interdependent capabilities. Basic lets you set LQC/LOB/QOT directly.
Advanced computes LQC/LOB/QOT from the capabilities above. The three numeric inputs will be locked while Advanced is active.
Legend: Sliders represent % progress toward the capability level sufficient for an RSA‑2048, ~1‑week break (relative to current LQC₀, LOB₀, QOT₀). Hover or click a slider to highlight its influences.
For in‑depth descriptions of the ten capabilities, see The Path to CRQC (Predicting Q‑Day) and linked capability articles.
Interdependency map (capability influence on LQC / LOB / QOT)
LQC
LOB
QOT
QEC
Syndrome
Below‑thr
Connectivity
Clifford
Magic
Decoder
Continuous
Integration
Modular
Dot color groups metrics (LQC blue / LOB orange / QOT purple). Hover or click a slider to highlight its row.
Interdependency Explorer (how improvements relax other requirements)
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Curve shows combinations of the two capabilities that reach Score≈1 with others held at current levels. Point outside [0..100%] indicates other sliders must rise too.
x
Reliable logical operations available (circuit depth).
x
Logical operations per second (throughput).
Advanced formula (optional)
Composite CRQC Readiness Score
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Projected Q-Day
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Projected CRQC Readiness score over time
Score 1.0 ≈ quantum capability to factor RSA-2048 in about one week. Adjust inputs and formula to explore scenarios. Estimates are illustrative only.
Advanced slider meaning: 0% ≈ no practical capability; 100% ≈ threshold maturity needed to help break RSA‑2048 in ~1 week under the current baseline targets (LQC₀, LOB₀, QOT₀). Intermediate values represent partial progress toward that threshold.
Quantum Error Correction efficiency: Code distance scaling, overhead, and reliability of logical qubits. Strongly drives LQC and LOB.
Syndrome extraction speed & reliability: Measurement cycle time, feedback. Major driver of QOT.
Below‑threshold physical error rates: Physical gate fidelities well below threshold. Strong on LQC/LOB, modest on QOT.
Qubit connectivity & routing: Parallel two‑qubit ops and low swap overhead; important for QOT, some for LOB.
Logical Clifford gate performance: Speed of logical Cliffords/lattice surgery; helps QOT/LOB.
Magic‑state factory throughput & fidelity: Sets non‑Clifford gate budget and rate; heavy on LOB and QOT; small LQC effect via overhead.
Decoder performance: Latency/accuracy to keep up with QEC; helps QOT and LOB.
Continuous operation: Stable multi‑day runtime without resets; heavy on LOB.
Algorithm integration & orchestration: Compilers/schedulers/stack; minor boosts across metrics.
Modular interconnectivity: Network/photonic links between modules; boosts LQC via scale‑out; slight QOT impact.
Logical Qubit Capacity (LQC): number of error-corrected, stable qubits available to run long algorithms. In vendor materials, look for keywords like “logical qubit”, “error-corrected qubit”, or “fault-tolerant qubit”. Roadmaps sometimes state targets such as “100+ logical qubits by 2029.”
Logical Operations Budget (LOB): reliable count of logical gate operations (circuit depth) your system can execute before failure. In announcements, look for “gate fidelity”, “circuit depth”, or “error-corrected layers.” Higher two-qubit fidelities and longer coherence indicate larger LOB.
Quantum Operations Throughput (QOT): how many logical operations per second your machine can execute (akin to clock speed). Vendors may refer to “ops per second”, “cycle time”, or metrics like CLOPS.
Score = (LQC / LQC₀) × (LOB / LOB₀) × (QOT / QOT₀). By default LQC₀=1,000; LOB₀=10¹²; QOT₀=10⁶. Score 1.0 ≈ capability to factor RSA-2048 in ~1 week. You can tweak these baseline constants here.
Growth factor: assumed year-over-year multiplier of the composite capability score. Example: 2.0 means doubling per year; 3.0 means tripling. Look for roadmap wording like “doubling yearly”, “10× every five years”, or similar. This drives the projected Q‑Day when score reaches 1.0.
Interdependency Explorer (how improvements relax other requirements)
vs
Curve shows combinations of the two capabilities that reach Score≈1 with others held at current levels. Point outside [0..100%] indicates other sliders must rise too.
Q-Day Countdown
For my most recent prediction taking into account the latest news and the CRQC Readiness Benchmark, see: Q-Day Revisited – RSA-2048 Broken by 2030: Detailed Analysis
Timeline of Key Q-Day Related News
A series of breakthroughs, from improved quantum computing algorithms to enhanced error correction and quantum hardware scaling, signals a shift in the quantum computing landscape. In my opinion. These developments indicate that quantum supremacy and cryptographically relevant quantum computing (CRQC) are transitioning from primarily scientific challenges to practical engineering problems. I have decided to track and document all significant research papers and engineering milestones below. This timeline aims to forecast the arrival of Q-Day, the day when quantum computing will become powerful and stable enough to break current encryption algorithms.
Predicting 2030: My Updated Q-Day Prediction
Based on all the recent developments I revised my Q-Day prediction and published it here: "Q-Day Revisited – RSA-2048 Broken by 2030: Detailed Analysis." In summary, I predict that the ...
Predicting 2030: Microsoft Unveils New 4D Quantum Error-Correcting Codes
Microsoft’s quantum research team announced a new family of four-dimensional (4D) geometric quantum error-correcting codes (presented in a recent preprint and blog post) that promise dramatic performance gains over today’s ...
Predicting 2030: Oxford Shatters Quantum Fidelity Records
The Oxford team set a new world record for the accuracy of a quantum logic gate: they demonstrated single-qubit operations with an error rate below 1×$$10^{-7}$$ (0.00001%), corresponding to 99.99999% ...
Predicting 2031: IBM’s Roadmap to Large-Scale Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computing by 2029
In June 2025, IBM made a landmark announcement outlining a clear plan to build the world’s first large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by the year 2029. See “IBM’s Roadmap to Large-Scale ...
Predicting 2031: Quantum Breakthrough Slashes Qubit Needs for RSA-2048 Factoring
Google researcher Craig Gidney published a paper that dramatically lowers the resources needed to break RSA-2048 encryption. The paper argues that a fault-tolerant quantum computer with under 1 million qubits ...
Predicting 2032: Google Announces Willow Quantum Chip
In December 2024, Google unveiled a new quantum processor named “Willow,” marking a major milestone in quantum hardware, as covered in more detail in “Google Announces Willow Quantum Chip.” The ...
Predicting 2032: RSA-2048 Within Reach of 1730 Qubits
Researchers Chevignard, Fouque, and Schrottenloher introduced an optimized quantum factoring method using approximate arithmetic which showed that a 2048-bit RSA modulus could be factored with roughly 1,730 logical qubits – ...
Predicting 2034: New Type of Qubit
Researchers demonstrated a controllable interaction between a new type of qubits - hole-spin qubits - inside a standard silicon transistor. If this research is confirmed and the researchers indeed become ...
Predicting 2034: Reliable Logical Qubit
In April 2024, Microsoft and Quantinuum announced the development of a reliable logical qubit, a milestone that, in my view, significantly accelerates the timeline toward Q-Day. This development represents a ...
Predicting 2036: Error Correction Improvement
Researchers from Nord Quantique in Quebec, Canada have just published a paper introducing a new error correction approach that could drastically reduce the number of qubits needed for functional quantum ...
Predicting 2037: 2023 Quantum Threat Timeline
The 2023 of the Quantum Threat Timeline Report was just published. As far as Q-Day predictions go, this is probably the best public source. The survey is run by Dr ...
Predicting 2032: Two-Qubit Gates 99.5% Fidelity
Researches from QuEra Computing, Harvard and MIT achieved two-qubit entangling gates with 99.5% fidelity on 60 neutral atom qubits operating simultaneously. Performing entangling quantum operations with low error rates, surpassing ...
Predicting 2033: Over 1,000 Controllable Atomic Qubits Achieved
Researchers from TU Darmstadt just reported on the world’s first successful experiment to realise a quantum-processing architecture that contains more than 1,000 atomic qubits in one single plane. This is ...
Predicting 2033: Initial Q-Day Prediction
I summarized my latest research on Q-Day predictions in this article Q-Day Predictions: Anticipating the Arrival of Cryptanalytically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQC). Based on all of the papers I've read, ...
Predicting 2035: Google Error Correction Breakthrough
In a new article Google researchers claim a breakthrough in quantum computing error correction. Their approach achieved a 4% reduction in the error rate as they scaled up their technique ...
Predicting 2037: 2022 Quantum Threat Timeline Report
2022 Quantum Threat Timeline Report surveyed 40 global quantum computing experts on timeline within which a quantum computer will be able to RSA-2048 within 24 hours. More than half (22/40) ...
Predicting 2035: Breaking RSA-2048 With 20M Noisy Qubits
Researchers Craig Gidney and Martin Ekerå, in a new paper, demonstrate how to factor RSA-2048 in 8 hours using 20 million noisy qubits. This is a significant improvement, as only ...