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Breaking RSA-2048 With 20M Noisy Qubit

An interesting paper was published on arXiv, the preprint server. Titled “How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers in 8 hours using 20 million noisy qubits,” the paper by Craig Gidney and Martin Ekerå combines previous techniques from Shor (1994), Griffiths-Niu (1996), Zalka (2006), Fowler (2012), Ekerå-Håstad (2017), Ekerå (2017, 2018), Gidney-Fowler (2019), and Gidney (2019) to significantly reduce the cost of factoring integers and computing discrete logarithms in finite fields on a quantum computer. By integrating these approaches, the authors claim that their construction’s spacetime volume for factoring RSA-2048 integers is a hundredfold less than comparable estimates from earlier works.

I find this paper notable because only six years ago, Fowler et al. published their optimization of Shor’s algorithm, estimating the need for 1 billion noisy qubits to factor RSA-2048. The rapid advancement in quantum algorithm development gives us an intriguing data point to predict when quantum computers will be capable of breaking our current cryptography.

See the full paper here: https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.09749

Marin Ivezic

I am the Founder of Applied Quantum (AppliedQuantum.com), a research-driven professional services firm dedicated to helping organizations unlock the transformative power of quantum technologies. Alongside leading its specialized service, Secure Quantum (SecureQuantum.com)—focused on quantum resilience and post-quantum cryptography—I also invest in cutting-edge quantum ventures through Quantum.Partners. Currently, I’m completing a PhD in Quantum Computing and authoring an upcoming book “Practical Quantum Resistance” (QuantumResistance.com) while regularly sharing news and insights on quantum computing and quantum security at PostQuantum.com. I’m primarily a cybersecurity and tech risk expert with more than three decades of experience, particularly in critical infrastructure cyber protection. That focus drew me into quantum computing in the early 2000s, and I’ve been captivated by its opportunities and risks ever since. So my experience in quantum tech stretches back decades, having previously founded Boston Photonics and PQ Defense where I engaged in quantum-related R&D well before the field’s mainstream emergence. Today, with quantum computing finally on the horizon, I’ve returned to a 100% focus on quantum technology and its associated risks—drawing on my quantum and AI background, decades of cybersecurity expertise, and experience overseeing major technology transformations—all to help organizations and nations safeguard themselves against quantum threats and capitalize on quantum-driven opportunities.
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