Q-Day
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Q-Day
Predicting 2030: My Updated Q-Day Prediction
Based on all the recent developments I revised my Q-Day prediction and published it here: “Q-Day Revisited – RSA-2048 Broken by 2030: Detailed Analysis.” In summary, I predict that the Q‑Day, the first practical quantum break of RSA‑2048, will land…
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Q-Day
Predicting 2030: Microsoft Unveils New 4D Quantum Error-Correcting Codes
Microsoft’s quantum research team announced a new family of four-dimensional (4D) geometric quantum error-correcting codes (presented in a recent preprint and blog post) that promise dramatic performance gains over today’s standard 2D surface codes. These 4D LDPC codes (low-density parity-check…
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Q-Day
Predicting 2030: Oxford Shatters Quantum Fidelity Records
The Oxford team set a new world record for the accuracy of a quantum logic gate: they demonstrated single-qubit operations with an error rate below 1×$$10^{-7}$$ (0.00001%), corresponding to 99.99999% fidelity per gate. To put that in perspective, only about…
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Q-Day
Predicting 2031: IBM’s Roadmap to Large-Scale Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computing by 2029
In June 2025, IBM made a landmark announcement outlining a clear plan to build the world’s first large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by the year 2029. See “IBM’s Roadmap to Large-Scale Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computing (FTQC) by 2029” for more information about…
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Q-Day
Predicting 2031: Quantum Breakthrough Slashes Qubit Needs for RSA-2048 Factoring
Google researcher Craig Gidney published a paper that dramatically lowers the resources needed to break RSA-2048 encryption. The paper argues that a fault-tolerant quantum computer with under 1 million qubits could factor a 2048-bit RSA key in under a week…
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Q-Day
Predicting 2032: Google Announces Willow Quantum Chip
In December 2024, Google unveiled a new quantum processor named “Willow,” marking a major milestone in quantum hardware, as covered in more detail in “Google Announces Willow Quantum Chip.” The 105-qubit Willow chip demonstrated two critical breakthroughs. First, it maintained…
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Q-Day
Predicting 2032: RSA-2048 Within Reach of 1730 Qubits
Researchers Chevignard, Fouque, and Schrottenloher introduced an optimized quantum factoring method using approximate arithmetic which showed that a 2048-bit RSA modulus could be factored with roughly 1,730 logical qubits – a huge drop from earlier estimates that ranged around 4,000–6,000…
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Q-Day
Predicting 2034: New Type of Qubit
Researchers demonstrated a controllable interaction between a new type of qubits – hole-spin qubits – inside a standard silicon transistor. If this research is confirmed and the researchers indeed become able to control this type of qubit electrically and as…
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Q-Day
Predicting 2034: Reliable Logical Qubit
In April 2024, Microsoft and Quantinuum announced the development of a reliable logical qubit, a milestone that, in my view, significantly accelerates the timeline toward Q-Day. This development represents a major breakthrough in the universal quantum computing approach. If the…
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Q-Day
Predicting 2036: Error Correction Improvement
Researchers from Nord Quantique in Quebec, Canada have just published a paper introducing a new error correction approach that could drastically reduce the number of qubits needed for functional quantum computers – from millions of qubits to just hundreds of…
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Q-Day
Predicting 2037: 2023 Quantum Threat Timeline
The 2023 of the Quantum Threat Timeline Report was just published. As far as Q-Day predictions go, this is probably the best public source. The survey is run by Dr. Michele Mosca, a prominent figure in the field of quantum…
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Q-Day
Predicting 2032: Two-Qubit Gates 99.5% Fidelity
Researches from QuEra Computing, Harvard and MIT achieved two-qubit entangling gates with 99.5% fidelity on 60 neutral atom qubits operating simultaneously. Performing entangling quantum operations with low error rates, surpassing quantum error-correcting thresholds, and in a scalable fashion is a…
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Q-Day
Predicting 2033: Over 1,000 Controllable Atomic Qubits Achieved
Researchers from TU Darmstadt just reported on the world’s first successful experiment to realise a quantum-processing architecture that contains more than 1,000 atomic qubits in one single plane. This is a an excellent achievement. However, because it was kind of…
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Q-Day
Predicting 2033: Initial Q-Day Prediction
I summarized my latest research on Q-Day predictions in this article Q-Day Predictions: Anticipating the Arrival of Cryptanalytically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQC). Based on all of the papers I’ve read, I believe that we are closer to Q-Day that previous…
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Q-Day
Predicting 2035: Google Error Correction Breakthrough
In a new article Google researchers claim a breakthrough in quantum computing error correction. Their approach achieved a 4% reduction in the error rate as they scaled up their technique to a larger quantum system. The most important aspect of…
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