Predicting 2035: Breaking RSA-2048 With 20M Noisy Qubits

Researchers Craig Gidney and Martin Ekerå, in a new paper, demonstrate how to factor RSA-2048 in 8 hours using 20 million noisy qubits. This is a significant improvement, as only six years ago, the state-of-the-art thinking required 1 billion noisy qubits. To estimate the arrival of the quantum threat, we need to track both the developments in quantum computing infrastructure and these kinds of algorithmic improvements. This latest paper provides an interesting data point that we can use to extrapolate potential future developments.

Breaking RSA-2048 With 20M Noisy Qubit