Dr. Michele Mosca, a prominent figure in the field of quantum computing and cryptography, and one of the most prominent voices advocating for active preparation of industries and governments for the quantum era regularly publishes a survey of global quantum computing experts on their Q-Day predictions.
The latest report, “The 2023 Quantum Threat Timeline Report,” was just published. The report assesses the progress and timeline for quantum computing, focusing on its potential impact on cybersecurity. The report gathers insights from 37 global experts in quantum computing. Expert Opinions on Timeline:
- 5 Years: Most experts see the likelihood of a quantum computer breaking RSA-2048 as very low.
- 10 Years: The likelihood increases but remains uncertain.
- 15-20 Years: A majority of experts estimate a higher likelihood, with significant confidence that a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer will be developed.
- 30 Years: Nearly all experts believe the threat will be realized.
The report also highlights a few key upcoming milestones such as advancements in error correction and scalable quantum systems. And finally, the surveyed experts highlight the importance of continuous investment and avoiding overhyping current capabilities.
For more details, you can read the full report here.
